PV Profitability Study

A Solar PV Profitability Study as a Function of Wholesale Market Price Variation Patterns
5 September 2022 by
Delinke Demeter

Non-incentivized utility-scale PV systems (typically relying on selling the produced electricity on the wholesale spot day-ahead market) have been appearing on the market in the last years. In 2021, 17% of the global annual market was deployed under such business models and it is expected that this share will continue to grow.

In parallel, key components of the energy transition (higher PV penetration, electrification of heating, cooling and mobility needs, astorage, power-to-X,…) may impact wholesale electricity price patterns by altering electricity supply demand imbalance in one direction or the other. Therefore, this study is a prospective analysis which assesses how different variations of electricity price patterns could impact PV profitability. Based on the developed methodology, the impacts of different wholesale electricity price patterns (daily patterns, seasonal patterns and occurrence of negative prices) on the profitability of a 50 MWp PV system under two business models have been assessed. Results take the form of charts displaying the NPV (Net Present Value).


Keywords: Economic Analysis, Price Modelling, Electricity Markets, Large Grid-connected PV systems

AUTHORS: Philippe Macé, Elina Bosch, Monica Aleman, André Penas, Adrien Van Rechem

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